Enjoyed the out of the box thought. If I may join you there, wouldn't less consumption mean less need for money, ie, a higher preference for leisure over work (instead of higher savings), opening a whole different set of considerations?
"Lying flat" trend points in that direction, but also the preference of millennials and following cohorts toward working the minimum possible. This could be due to a different sense of work life balance than we had, in turn possibly amplified by the perception that population aging means they'll have no money anyway from the burden of social taxation. Climate anxiety contributes to this sense of no future.
Automation, as human labour substitution, may be coming in at just the right time. This is likely not a coincidence as some of the preference you note for online games and apps probably feed plenty of new ideas for those developing AI.
It is incredible how reality converges with what sci fi books of the 60s had described for the future of society. The other interesting question then is: what else are they saying we haven't paid attention to yet?
Thanks Agnes, very interesting thoughts. On your last point, i completely agree, we would be wise to re-read some of the sci-fi classics and reflect on more of their predictions.
For me one key takeaway has always been that human nature remains immutable: our main drivers (ambition, laziness, jealousy, greed, etc) stay the same even as technology evolves. In that framework, I lean towards a different interpretation: new generations' preference for working less might come not from less desire for money and consumption, but from the belief that they can keep enjoying rising living standards with less effort. Hence the resurgent support for different forms of populism, where politicians promise free money to be either created from nothing (government debt, MMT) or taken from "others" (taxing the rich, keeping out immigrants).
You make a very good point on the coming together of automation with younger generations' lower propensity to work. Makes me wonder (1) if automation will be enough to keep the pie growing; (2) what are the potential distributional consequences given the uneven spread of automation; (3) what will happen to our own abilities as we eagerly delegate more tasks to machines.
And if we go all out on the sci-fi thinking: what does society look like once nobody wants to or needs to work? Might really be time to hit the sci-fi bookshelves.
Provocative as a;ways. No data but from years of observations the shift to virtual world and online shopping has impacted volume in the following way. Product placement influences additional and UNPLANNED purchase (never leave a grocery store with just the bread and milk and Costco whew) but on Amazon regardless of click bait and pop ups you purchase just what you need. Not sure of magnitude of impact on overall consumption but targeted purchase with just in time delivery is a new world
Enjoyed the out of the box thought. If I may join you there, wouldn't less consumption mean less need for money, ie, a higher preference for leisure over work (instead of higher savings), opening a whole different set of considerations?
"Lying flat" trend points in that direction, but also the preference of millennials and following cohorts toward working the minimum possible. This could be due to a different sense of work life balance than we had, in turn possibly amplified by the perception that population aging means they'll have no money anyway from the burden of social taxation. Climate anxiety contributes to this sense of no future.
Automation, as human labour substitution, may be coming in at just the right time. This is likely not a coincidence as some of the preference you note for online games and apps probably feed plenty of new ideas for those developing AI.
It is incredible how reality converges with what sci fi books of the 60s had described for the future of society. The other interesting question then is: what else are they saying we haven't paid attention to yet?
Thanks Agnes, very interesting thoughts. On your last point, i completely agree, we would be wise to re-read some of the sci-fi classics and reflect on more of their predictions.
For me one key takeaway has always been that human nature remains immutable: our main drivers (ambition, laziness, jealousy, greed, etc) stay the same even as technology evolves. In that framework, I lean towards a different interpretation: new generations' preference for working less might come not from less desire for money and consumption, but from the belief that they can keep enjoying rising living standards with less effort. Hence the resurgent support for different forms of populism, where politicians promise free money to be either created from nothing (government debt, MMT) or taken from "others" (taxing the rich, keeping out immigrants).
You make a very good point on the coming together of automation with younger generations' lower propensity to work. Makes me wonder (1) if automation will be enough to keep the pie growing; (2) what are the potential distributional consequences given the uneven spread of automation; (3) what will happen to our own abilities as we eagerly delegate more tasks to machines.
And if we go all out on the sci-fi thinking: what does society look like once nobody wants to or needs to work? Might really be time to hit the sci-fi bookshelves.
Marco
Provocative as a;ways. No data but from years of observations the shift to virtual world and online shopping has impacted volume in the following way. Product placement influences additional and UNPLANNED purchase (never leave a grocery store with just the bread and milk and Costco whew) but on Amazon regardless of click bait and pop ups you purchase just what you need. Not sure of magnitude of impact on overall consumption but targeted purchase with just in time delivery is a new world
Excellent point Andrew. It reminds me of the ponderous evidence that digital advertising simply does not work (or rather, zero evidence that it has any impact), as this Freakonomics episode from a few years back: https://freakonomics.com/podcast/does-advertising-actually-work-part-2-digital-ep-441/
And yet the digital advertising bubble gets bigger and bigger....